A suffering 2024 for Italian menswear

After years of growth, 2024 looms as a year of “suffering” for fashion in general and for Italian menswear. Against a backdrop of great uncertainties, the greatest fears are to be found in the lower propensity of consumers to buy, sharp increases in costs, the slowdown of many major economies, as well as geopolitical tensions related to both the various ongoing conflicts and a series of key political elections, such as the European elections last June and the most recent American ones.

According to estimates compiled by the Economic Studies Office of Confindustria Moda, Italian men’s fashion (in a sense that includes ready-to-wear, outerwear, shirts, ties and leather apparel) is expected to file 2024, after three years of continuous growth, with a -3.6 percent decline in sales compared to the previous year. In 2024, therefore, Italian menswear turnover would rise to 11.4 billion euros, covering 18.9 percent of the Italian textile-clothing supply chain.

With reference to the individual micro-sectors examined here, in 2024 they are all affected by negative dynamics, with the exception of leather clothing. In 2024, the value of production (recall that this variable is proposed to estimate the value of production activity carried out in Italy, net of the marketing of imported products) shows a decrease of -4.0 percent over 2023. Over the course of the year, cross-border sales remained positive, albeit at a slower pace: exports are expected to change by +0.6%. The total level of foreign sales would thus rise to about 8.9 billion euros. The share of exports in total industry sales would continue to strengthen, reaching 77.8 percent.

In contrast, with regard to imports, a decline of -6.6 percent over the 12 months is projected, with total sectoral imports amounting to 5.3 billion.

Given the aforementioned foreign trade trend, an improvement is expected for the sectoral trade surplus; in fact, the total surplus is expected to rise to more than 3.6 billion in the full year.

Import and export

A more detailed picture shows, from January to September 2024, how menswear exports remained positive, registering a growth of +1.0%, reaching 7.1 billion euros. On the contrary, on the import side, in the first nine months of 2024, made-in-Italy menswear shows an average decline of -7.2%, dropping to around 4.8 billion.

About the main destinations, France is confirmed in the lead, with +7.5 percent, securing 12.8 percent of total exports, followed by Germany, with 10.1 percent of men’s exports, despite a -2.9 percent drop. This was followed in third place by the United States, up +0.6 percent, thus absorbing 9.3 percent of men’s fashion exports. Thanks to strong growth of +30.1 percent, China climbs to fourth place.

Looking at performance by product line, from January to September 2024, export growth is noted for all items except ties, which show a -7.6 percent decline. Leather apparel, with a growth of +9.7 percent, is the best performer; outerwear shows a dynamic of +1.3 percent; followed by men’s shirts (+1.2 percent) and men’s knitwear (with a smaller increase: +0.4 percent).

Relative to supply markets in the first nine months of 2024, however, China remains the top supplier with a 12.5 percent significance, despite a -9.8 percent decline over the same period in 2023. Bangladesh, in second position, shows a double-digit decline (-12.3%), as does France, third, which flexes by -10.4%.

In the case of supplies from abroad, in the first nine months of 2024, there is a contraction in imports for all products except leather clothing, which grows by +6.6 percent.

Turning to consumer analysis on the domestic market, with reference to AW 2023-24, Textile-Clothing as a whole was characterized by a negative dynamic in contrast to that recorded in the previous F/W season: in value it experienced a decline of -3.8% and in volume of -4.7%, while F/W 2022-23 had filed +5.9% in value and +2.3% in volume.