Almost one in five Italian leather bags failed to cross the German border this year. In the first half of 2026, Germany imported 372,000, compared with 456,000 the previous year (-18.5 per cent). Yet the value fell by just 3.7 per cent, to 112.2 million euros. Fewer items, higher average price. Good news? It depends on which side of the counter you’re looking from.

The picture is painted by the Federal Association of the German Footwear and Leather Goods Industry (HDS/L). Following the sharp decline between 2024 and 2025, turnover for German footwear manufacturers fell a further 2.4 per cent, from 1.17 to 1.14 billion euros. The domestic market fell by 2.8 per cent (903 million), whilst exports held steady at 242 million. The leather goods sector fell by 1.1 per cent. Stability, yes, but only at ground level. The number of employees at footwear companies with at least 50 staff fell to 8,943 (-3 per cent). In the leather processing sector, the decline was 11.1 per cent.

And what about Italy? German footwear exports to Italy fell by 23.6 per cent (11.9 million pairs). Imports from Italy fell by 17.5 per cent (10.2 million), dragged down by city shoes with leather uppers (-16.8 per cent). In leather goods, however, Italy remains Germany’s second-largest supplier and grew by 1.7 per cent, to 271.9 million euros. Only China ranks ahead, though its share of the total import value slipped from 44.2 per cent to 42 per cent. Meanwhile, German footwear exports to the United States rose by 22.6 per cent (re-exports?).

There is no shortage of clouds on the horizon. The war with Iran is driving up transport, energy and raw material costs, whilst price rises from Asian factories are being passed up the value chain. Then there is the bureaucracy. The forthcoming German textiles law, which transposes the EU Waste Framework Directive, will extend producer responsibility to footwear, imposing obligations regarding the collection and management of used products. The association supports the goal of circularity but calls for harmonised rules free from bureaucratic red tape. Also on the table is the EU–Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which must be ratified in time for it to come into force in 2027.

‘German footwear and leather goods enjoy an excellent reputation abroad: we must promote this and strengthen our international contacts,’ says Torben Schütz, Director General of HDS/L. Demand, therefore, has not disappeared. Price-conscious consumers continue to favour products that combine functionality, quality, design and durability.

A barometer with two hands moving in opposite directions. This is the picture painted by the data released on 14 September 2026 by Assocalzaturifici on the Italian footwear sector: turnover for the first half of the year fell by 2.3 per cent, exports for the first five months dropped by 2.4 per cent, yet the trade balance grew by 9.6 per cent to reach 2.16 billion euros.

According to analyses by the Confindustria Fashion Accessories Research Centre for Assocalzaturifici, between January and May 2026 exports totalled 4.77 billion euros, with a more pronounced decline in volume (-5.8 per cent). Regions affected by geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on the figures: Russia -24.6 per cent, the Middle East -34 per cent, and the United States -5.2 per cent. The Far East is slowing further (-1.6%) following the sharp contraction of 2025. The European Union bucked the trend (+2%), driven by France (+4.3%), the leading destination market accounting for over a fifth of the sector’s exports.

The most unexpected news comes from home. After three years of decline, Italian households’ footwear purchases have grown by around 2 per cent in both volume and value. Women’s footwear rose by 4 per cent, whilst sports shoes and trainers increased by 1.5 per cent: the latter now account for over 42 per cent of spending.

The flip side of the coin lies in the supply chain. The production index from the National Institute of Statistics (Istat) stands at -6.7 per cent. In six months, 151 active businesses closed down (-4.7 per cent) and 3,065 jobs were lost (-4.5 per cent) across industry and the craft sector: the number of footwear factories fell to 3,045, whilst the number of employees dropped to 65,279. The only silver lining on the employment front is that the number of hours of authorised short-time working in the leather supply chain fell by 24.1 per cent compared with 2025, to 12.9 million.

Giovanna Ceolini, president of Assocalzaturifici, describes companies grappling with geopolitical tensions, slowing demand and rising costs, and sees the trade balance as proof that ‘Made in Italy’ manages to create value even in difficult times. The call is clear: measures to strengthen competitiveness, investment and employment.

The figures therefore paint a picture of a sector that is holding its own in terms of value and in neighbouring markets, whilst its production base is shrinking. A growing trade balance is a positive sign, but on its own it cannot rebuild a supply chain that is losing companies and workers.

Zero point one. That is the margin separating 2025 from the previous year in global footwear production: 24.6 billion pairs, a step forward so small as to resemble stagnation. This snapshot comes from the World Footwear Yearbook 2026, the sixteenth edition of the yearbook published by the Portuguese Footwear Association (APICCAPS), launched in 2011. The figure follows a revised estimate for 2024, which now indicates growth of close to 10 per cent for that year.

Stagnant, however, does not mean unchanged. Export volumes fell by 0.1 per cent, whilst the value of trade rose by 1.6 per cent to reach 172 billion dollars. Fewer pairs exported, more dollars earned. Driving the value is the recovery in the average export price, which has risen to $11.65 per pair following the decline in 2024: it stood at $8.87 in 2016 and remains below the record high of $11.96 set in 2023. There is a marked difference between regions: $34.76 per pair in Europe, compared with $8.02 in Asia, reflecting very different market structures, production profiles and market positioning.

Asia remains the centre of gravity, whichever way you look at it: it produces 88.7 per cent of the world’s footwear and consumes 56 per cent of it. China produces 13.7 billion pairs, accounting for 55.6 per cent of the total, followed by India with 3 billion (12.2 per cent) and Vietnam with 1.7 billion (6.7 per cent). Outside Asia, only Brazil (3.4 per cent) and Mexico (0.9 per cent) feature among the top ten producers.

Anyone who imagines China’s dominance to be unchanging needs to think again. China exports 9 billion pairs, but its share of global exports has fallen to 61.2 per cent, down from 69.1 per cent ten years ago. Vietnam has benefited most of all, rising to 11.2 per cent. In Europe, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands act as logistics and re-export hubs, and Germany ranks fourth in the world in terms of export volumes.

In terms of consumption, the disparities between regions are stark. In North America, an average of 4.6 pairs per person are purchased, compared with 4.1 in Europe and 1.6 in Africa. China is the leading market with 4.8 billion pairs, ahead of India (2.8 billion) and the United States (1.95 billion).

The outlook for 2025, therefore, points to a market that is growing not in volume but in value, with its centre of gravity increasingly defined by Asian consumers.

For further information: www.worldfootwear.com

Anyone who has bought a fridge or a dishwasher in recent years will have spotted a line on their invoice that often goes unnoticed: ‘environmental levy paid’. Before long, the same wording could appear on the receipt for a pair of lace-ups. The scheme is called Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) and is set to be introduced in Italy for clothing, footwear, textiles and leather goods. We discussed this at MICAM Milan in September 2026 with Mauro Chezzi, deputy director of Confindustria Moda – Textile and Fashion Federation and association representative for Retex.Green, the consortium for the circular economy in the fashion sector, which announced its partnership with Assocalzaturifici at the fair itself.

Let’s start with the consortium. What is Retex.Green?

We founded it in March 2022 as Confindustria Moda, together with Assocalzaturifici and other associations within the Confindustria system, to promote circularity across the entire clothing and footwear supply chain. We did so in anticipation of the regulatory changes coming from Europe, which have already begun to come into force.

What changed in July 2026?

The first requirement of the European Ecodesign Regulation, approved two years ago, has come into force. It applies to large companies with over 250 employees and prohibits the destruction of unsold garments, except in a few cases provided for by the legislation. For over a year, we have been working on circularity measures to prevent destruction and to ensure that, where it is necessary and lawful, it takes place under the strictest possible criteria.

The next phase will be EPR. When will this come into effect?

Hypothetically speaking: if, by the end of 2026, the interministerial decree signed by the Ministry of Enterprise and Made in Italy and the Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security is published in the Official Gazette, companies will have four months to register with a consortium. Entities placing finished products on the Italian market, whether under their own brand or under licence, are obliged to comply. Small businesses will have an extra year. 

How will the eco-contribution be calculated?

Each consortium will ask its members for a declaration of the quantity placed on the national market, expressed in kilograms. Exports do not count, but imports do. Using these funds, the consortium will establish a collection and sorting chain, following this order of priority: reuse, recycling and, finally, waste-to-energy. Retex.Green will not send anything to landfill: this is a practice we believe should be phased out as soon as possible.

Who actually bears the cost?

For companies, it is a matter of outlay, not cost. The principle is ‘the polluter pays’: companies pay the eco-contribution upfront and include it on the invoice or receipt, as is already the case for household appliances. The cost falls on the end consumer, who physically generates the waste.

Not all shoes, however, are the same.

The legislation aims to reward the most circular products. The parameters currently being developed are durability, recyclability, reparability and recycled content, although the list is not yet exhaustive. Those who work on these aspects will receive bonuses, i.e. reductions in the eco-contribution. Reducing the contribution means reducing the resources the company must advance to the system.

Is the supply chain involved in any way?

The manufacturing sector has no direct obligations, but it must supply circular products to those who place them on the market, thereby securing economic benefits. This is a stated objective of the legislation: those who sell govern the supply chain and have the leverage – including commercial leverage – to require it to fall into line. The linear model – in which products are manufactured, resources are consumed and waste is disposed of – has its days numbered.

What should a footwear manufacturer do now?

Realise that it is no longer a question of ‘if’, but of ‘when’ the regulation will come into force, because there is a European directive underpinning it: at most, it will be delayed by a few months. Aligning with the regulation now is not a gamble; it is a guarantee of competitiveness. It is advisable to identify the right consortium quickly. Retex.Green has the advantage of not having started out as an EPR expert, but rather as a specialist in footwear, clothing, textiles and leather goods. We believe it is important to have a partner who understands the sector’s challenges. Our aim is to drive research and innovation in recycling.

At MICAM, you also announced an incentive.

We have signed an agreement with Assocalzaturifici and the trade fair organisers: MICAM exhibitors who join Retex.Green by 31 December 2026 will not have to pay the membership fee for 2026 and 2027.